Riley Beveridge looks at the five factors that could decide this year's flag winner
HOW WILL the Cats beat Buddy? How will the Swans stop Jez?
AFL.com.au has teamed up with Champion Data to dive into the numbers and analyse the five crucial areas where the biggest game of the season will be won and lost.
SIX OF THE BEST Swamp's spectacular Grand Final statistics
Jeremy Cameron might be the best and most influential player in the competition. He's kicked 63 goals this season, wins plenty of his own footy, and sets up his teammates just as well as he finishes chances himself. However, in recent years, Dane Rampe has become almost the perfect Cameron match-up. Like Cameron, he's a key-position player who can also get up and down the ground, and doesn't necessarily fit the prototype bigger-bodied mould of players in his position. Rampe has held Cameron goalless for 199 straight minutes while matched as his direct opponent now, including throughout the entirety of their round two meeting at the SCG. It was one of just three times Cameron has been held goalless this season. Lewis Melican had the match-up on Cameron when Sydney met Geelong last year, though Rampe also held him goalless when ‘Jezza’ was playing for Greater Western Sydney in 2020. Cameron did kick one goal that day, but it was while he was paired against Callum Mills. Can the Swans co-captain do a similar shutdown job again on Saturday?
GRAND FINAL TIPS Norm Smith, most disposals, headlines, more
Tom Stewart is Geelong's most important defensive-half player. He averages 2.9 intercept marks per game (no other Cats general defender averages more than 1.4 intercept marks per game), while he also averages 8.9 intercept possessions per game (no other Cats general defender averages more than 4.8 intercept possessions per game). He is consistently the player Geelong will try to get free, as he is crucial to the Cats winning the ball back. So, it is imperative Sydney puts a plan in place to stop Stewart. That could rely on positioning, and trust in its forward structure, or it could rely on shutdown player Ryan Clarke having his biggest role yet. While not necessarily a natural match-up for Stewart, any negating tactics Clarke can provide to disrupt the Geelong star's influence could be crucial to the outcome. He played a fantastic role on Nick Daicos last week, could Clarke now limit Stewart's output on Grand Final day?
A GRAND FINAL LIKE NO OTHER Red-hot Cats, Swans in rare clash
Geelong is undoubtedly the in-form side of the competition. The Cats head into Grand Final day on an unbeaten 15-match winning streak, and eased into the season decider courtesy of a comfortable 71-point victory over Brisbane. There are not many ways to stop them, but pressure is one of them. Champion Data's 'pressure factor' measures the six different ways of applying pressure and gauges how much pressure a team is under per disposal. Geelong is 15-0 this season when the opposition's pressure factor is under 180. However, it's just 5-4 when the opposition's pressure factor exceeds 180. Sydney averages a pressure factor of 187 this season, ranked No.1 in the competition. The Swans also had a pressure factor of 185 when they beat the Cats in round two, as well as a pressure factor of 184 when they won this match-up in 2021. It's something to watch for on Saturday.
THE DEPTH TEST How the less-storied names stack up on Grand Final day
Sydney isn't a great clearance team. This season the Swans' clearance differential measures in at +0.8 per game, putting John Longmire's side smack bang in the middle of the pack with a No.9 ranking in the AFL. But, when Sydney does win clearance, it generally wins the game as well. The Swans are 12-1 this season when they have won clearance, with their only defeat coming in a match against Carlton where they only finished +2 in the count. Given Sydney is a fantastic defensive team, and score well consistently, winning the clearance battle has put the cherry on top of its best performances. But, with Patrick Dangerfield back to his best last week, Geelong also stacks up pretty well in this regard. It shapes as a fascinating midfield battle on Saturday.
TALE OF TWO PRELIMS What history tells us
Patrick Dangerfield gets the first goal of the game after taking a typically brave grab
Grand Finals aren't necessarily known as free-flowing, high-scoring affairs. However, for much of this season, it's how Geelong and Sydney have played their best footy. They're both aggressive teams, score well from turnover, and want to be involved in big-scoring games. The Cats average 97.7 points per match (No.2 in the AFL), while the Swans average 93.9 points (No.4 in the League). Geelong also averages 38.8 points per game from its defensive half, while Sydney averages 36.1 points in the same category. That's No.1 and No.2 in the competition respectively. However, with Grand Finals renowned for having high pressure and less ball movement, playing in such a manner on Saturday will be difficult. Whichever team can ultimately move the ball best from its back-half might be crowned premiers.
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